Enter the bookmaker's 1×2 (Home / Draw / Away) decimal odds. The model strips the overround, infers expected goals via grid-search Poisson fit, and generates full market probabilities.
1×2 Probabilities (margin-removed)
Home Win
-
Fair: -
Draw
-
Fair: -
Away Win
-
Fair: -
Home xG (λ)
-
expected goals
Away xG (λ)
-
expected goals
📉 Bookmaker Margin (Vig)
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Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
BTTS — Yes
-
Fair: -
BTTS — No
-
Fair: -
Over / Under Lines
Score Probability Matrix (top 36)
Methodology: The bookmaker margin is removed proportionally to yield true implied probabilities.
A grid-search bivariate Poisson model (step 0.05, λ ∈ [0.3, 3.5]) estimates each team's expected goals from the win/draw/loss likelihoods.
The full score matrix drives all output markets. Edge = model probability minus book-implied probability.